We have been in a strong El Niño since December. While the impacts from El Niño that everyone expected (such as above normal rainfall and possible flooding) have not arrived this winter to Southern California, other parts of the country saw the effects. The Northeast has had a much warmer than normal winter, for instance. Nationally, we had the warmest January on record, also an effect of El Niño.

El Niño is a relatively new phenomena in relation to the Earth. We only have six strong El Niños to look at since 1950 when the ocean-atmosphere phenomena was discovered. It is very minutely small sample size to look at in comparison to the much longer history of the Earth.

NOAA long-range forecasts continue to indicate a better chance of above normal rainfall for March through May, but this strong El Niño has shown itself to be much different than previous ones. It is probably because of the warmer ocean temperatures that developed along the California coast over the past two years.

However, all hope is not lost for a wetter than normal rainfall. It is important to remember the near neutral years or weak El Niños could produce above normal precipitation as well. In 1991, March ended up being one of the wettest March months on record across much of SoCal. March 1991 produced 14.01" of rain for Ojai. Thus if the right weather pattern sets up between March and May, the region could end up being above normal for the Southern California rainfall year (July 1st-June 30th) and the water year (October 1st-September 30th). 

For more info:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/calendar_outlook.php?wfo=lox&site=46399

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_prcp.gif